Continuous Improvement in Decision-making in Fire Management
The fire environment is a dynamic, continually changing system influenced by climate change, weather, fuels, vegetation and humans. The intersection of these factors drives wildland fire impacts, responses and reactions. Recent years have seen an emerging phenomenon referred to in a variety of ways including "Mega Fire," "0.25% Fires and "Fires of National Significance." Regardless of the moniker, the trend is real and has dire consequences. These fires are larger, more dangerous and more expensive than ever before. This small number (20-30) of "mega" fires was the scene of all the fatalities on US Forest Service jurisdiction in 2008. This percentage of fatalities has steadily climbed since 2005 when there were no fatalities on these types of fires. In addition to the increase in lives lost, the average suppression cost for these fires now exceeds $500 million annually. Other trends are emerging as well. Overall, fatalities and acres burned are increasing, and the number of fires exceeding 100,000 acres is five times more than it was just ten years ago.
The wildland fire community has at times employed the principle of overwhelming mass, (the precautionary principle) which assumes there will be adequate resources to fully execute the chosen strategies on all fires. The notion that each fire is a separate and independent event is one of the most deeply ingrained mental models. The precautionary principle drives many decisions and basically states, in the absence of science and an expectation of differeing outcomes, leaders will choose the most conservative approach to a problem. Another way to view this would be - managers will order resources 'just in case.'
Forest Service leadership at all levels, along with partners, stakeholders and cooperators has taken up the challenge of improving both decisions and management of these colossal fires. This should be viewed as a journey and not a destination. Like any journey there are a number of steps. The first step in the process was to deconstruct and study fires to discover opportunities to change outcomes. It was recognized that decisions were driving outcomes, and with improved decisions leaders could expect better outcomes in safety, fire's impact on the land and cost. Science-based decision support tools have been improved and will be deployed to assist leaders in making better and more informed decisions. These tools do not replace leadership or excellent judgment.
A group of forests were selected for the test bed or to pilot this improved management model. These forests, sometimes referred to as "at risk" forests, display several unique characteristics which led to their selection. High quality, local leadership with the ability and determination to be on the cutting edge of new technology was a prime consideration. Other factors included climatology and fire history. Ideally, the opportunity to pilot an improved set of tools and actions on these dangerous and expensive fires will be embraced on these units.